Sunrise Science

What The Scores Mean

🔥 80–100

Exceptional
Set your alarm. Conditions are near-perfect—scattered mid-level clouds, light westerly winds, good visibility. Expect vibrant oranges, pinks, and purples across the sky.

Exceptional

✨ 60–79

Very Good
Worth the early wake-up. Solid colours, good atmosphere. Not flawless, but you won't regret going.

Very Good

😐 40–59

Moderate
Some colour, but nothing spectacular. Decent if you're already awake, probably not worth setting an alarm for.

Moderate

😴 20–39

Poor
Sleep in. Conditions are working against you—mostly grey and flat. Maybe a faint glow, but overall underwhelming.

Poor

😞 0–19

Very Poor
Heavy overcast or terrible atmospheric conditions. You'll see the sky go from dark to slightly less dark. That's about it.

Very Poor

🎯 Built on ECMWF Data

We use the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model—the most accurate weather forecasting system in the world.

ECMWF is trusted by meteorologists, weather services, and scientific institutions globally. It consistently outperforms other models for medium-range forecasts, which means your sunrise predictions are built on the best atmospheric data available.

The 5 Factors We Track

Every sunrise score is based on these atmospheric conditions

☁️ Cloud Quality

The sweet spot: 30–50% mid-level clouds (2–6km altitude). These catch the best colours. Low clouds above 70% act like a grey ceiling and block everything. If low cloud coverage is above 70%, the score caps at 20/100.

47%

👁️ Visibility

Slight haze (10–15km visibility) means there are particles in the atmosphere that scatter blue light and amplify reds and oranges. Post-rain mornings often hit this sweet spot—air is clean but still has residual moisture.

25%

💧 Humidity

Humidity between 60–80% creates that atmospheric glow where colours spread across the sky instead of staying concentrated in one spot. Too dry (<50%) and colours lack depth. Too humid (>85%) and you risk fog.

20%

💨 Wind

For Sydney's east, wind direction is key. Westerly winds (from inland) = dry, clear air = ideal. Easterly winds (from ocean) = moisture and clouds = less ideal. Wind speed of 5–15 km/h keeps clouds moving and dynamic.

12%

📊 Pressure Trend

Rising pressure means clearing skies. A cold front that passed 12–24 hours ago often leaves behind perfect conditions—rising pressure, scattered mid-level clouds, westerly winds. This is the pattern we're tracking.

8%

Why Offshore Data?

We check conditions 20km east of your location, out over the ocean.

Why? Sunrise light travels horizontally through the atmosphere. The clouds and particles offshore are what the light interacts with before it reaches you. Checking onshore conditions misses where the action actually happens.

How It Works

We pull atmospheric data from Open-Meteo, run it through physics-based algorithms, and give you a score. No guessing—just meteorology.

Simple rule: Score above 80? Set your alarm. Score below 40? Sleep in.

Special Patterns We Look For

Post-Storm Sunrises

12–24 hours after a cold front passes, conditions often align perfectly: rising pressure, scattered mid-level clouds, westerly winds, and clean air with slight haze. These are the 90+ score mornings.

Marine Layer Burn-Off

Sometimes heavy low clouds an hour before sunrise drop to <40% by sunrise time. We detect this clearing pattern and adjust the score accordingly.

Limitations (We're Honest)

Microclimates: Localised fog or clouds can form that forecasts miss.

Rapid changes: Weather shifts. We update every 60 minutes, but surprises happen.

Subjective beauty: A 60/100 sunrise might still look incredible to you.

Our accuracy sits around 80% for scores above 70 and below 30. The middle range (40–60) is trickier—conditions can swing either way.